How Important are Survival Rates?

Originally published on July 2 2018

A GFRC client asked the following question: How much consideration can fairly be or should be given to survival rates in deciding value to pay for a coin or whether to collect a series?

To be honest, I don't pay much attention to survival rate discussions unless a date is a super rarity. Survival rates are estimates that are always subject to revisions as more specimens are discovered or graded by Third Party Grading services. Today's survival rate estimates are much different than those made prior to 1986, when PCGS grading appears along with their population reports.

To properly use "survival rates" as a basis for numismatic study and collecting, then one has to define what "survival rate" actually means. On a broad basis, survival rate includes every possible surviving example of a date including all grades and all preservation states. This means Fair 2 examples are lumped with choice mint states pieces. Bent, porous and mutilated coins should also be included in the purist sense.

Let's take the 1874-CC key date Liberty Seated dime to make this point.

• Breen lists the 1874-CC date as #3376 in his Complete Encyclopedia of U.S. and Colonial Coins. Today, we are shocked to see this statement; 1874-CC [10,817] Ex. rare, possibly 6-8 known. Usually in low grade, porous or rough. Breen published his tome during 1988.


• PCGS population report effective July 2, 2018 indicates 57 examples certified in all grades. I could not get to the NGC population report due to some difficulties navigating their website this morning, but let's assume another 30-40 graded by NGC. So roughly 100 pieces have graded.


• If we consider ANACS and ICG populations plus all the remaining pieces that are still raw due to excessive porosity, then surviving population could be as high as 250 or more. Does it make any difference if the number is 250, 400 or even 500 other than intellectual curiosity?


• How about asking the same question for those 1874-CC dimes that are truly choice enough to win CAC approval? That number is 11 and a much more important piece of data than general survival rate speculations for serious collectors.

My bottom line advice?

When deciding to collect an early silver, gold or copper series, please pay attention to availability rather than survival rates. Availability can be easily accessed by checking Heritage Auction archives.